Grading PolitiFact: President Obama and the border surge

To assess the truth for a numbers claim, the biggest factor is the underlying message.
--PolitiFact editor Bill Adair

The issue:

(image clipped from PolitiFact.com)

The fact checkers:

Robert Farley:  writer, researcher
Martha Hamilton:  editor


Analysis:

Twice as many border patrol agents today as in 2004?  Sounds like another numbers claim.  Therefore, the most important thing in the fact check will be the underlying message.  Let's watch for it:

In a speech on immigration reform in El Paso, Texas, President Barack Obama boasted about an unprecedented number of border security agents along the U.S. border with Mexico, but he said critics probably still won't be satisfied.

"Under Secretary Napolitano’s leadership, we have strengthened border security beyond what many believed was possible," Obama said in his May 10, 2011, speech. "They wanted more agents on the border. Well, we now have more boots on the ground on the southwest border than at any time in our history. The Border Patrol has 20,000 agents –- more than twice as many as there were in 2004, a buildup that began under President Bush and that we have continued."

PolitiFact detects one underlying message by noting that President Obama "boasted."  The president wants some credit for the increase ("... a buildup that began under President Bush and that we have continued").  The president also appears to argue--and PolitiFact notes this as well--that the state of the increase meets conditions set by Republicans for proceeding with comprehensive immigration legislation.  Neither underlying message appears to figure in PolitiFact's final rating.

PolitiFact:

Here, we decided to focus on Obama's claim that "the Border Patrol has 20,000 agents -- more than twice as many as there were in 2004."

Hmmm.  Interesting decision.  I guess that excludes consideration of the underlying messages?  The most important thing?

PolitiFact:

There were 20,745 border patrol agents as of April 9, 2011; 17,659 of them stationed along the southwest border with Mexico, according to data provided by Steven Cribby, a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security.

That's up from 17,499 border patrol agents at the end of September 2008, four months before Obama took office (an 18 percent increase).

One wonders how and why we measure from a September 2008 baseline.  The latter paragraph seems intended to justify Obama's claim to credit for continuing the increase.  But there is reason to suspect PolitiFact's version of the history.  The suspicions stem from presidential budget proposals (part of the PolitiFact list of story references).

2008 (Bush):

The 2008 Budget provides more than $3.5 billion for the Border Patrol (an increase of 27 percent over the 2007 enacted level) including funding for 3,000 new agents. The President has committed to doubling the size of the Border Patrol to over 18,000 agents before he leaves office. At the start of the President’s Administration, there were 9,096 Border Patrol agents. This Budget will bring the total number of agents to 17,819, and the 2009 Budget will achieve the President’s goal.

2009 (Bush):

Nearly Border Patrol Staffing $500 million for 2,200 new Border Patrol agents, to accomplish the President’s goal of more than doubling the size of the Border Patrol—from approximately 9,000 agents to 20,000 agents—since September 11, 2001.

2010  (Obama):

Funding of $368 million within existing Customs and Border Protection funds support 20,000 Border Patrol agents protecting nearly 6,000 miles of U.S. borders.

2011 (Obama):

The Budget includes funding to support 20,000 Border Patrol agents and complete the first segment of Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP’s) virtual border fence. The Budget also includes funding for 300 new CBP officers for passenger and cargo screening at ports of entry, as well as expansion of pre-screening operations at foreign airports and land ports of entry.

2012 (Obama):

The President’s Budget includes funding to support 21,370 Border Patrol agents and funds an additional 300 new Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officers for passenger and cargo screening, as well as expansion of pre-screening operations at foreign airports and land ports of entry.

In terms of presidential budgets Bush obviously did all the heavy lifting with respect to increasing the number of border agents.  The real question, based on the presidential budget numbers, is the origin of the 1,070 Border Patrol agents Obama was willing to support compared to the 20,000 or so mentioned in his FY2011 budget.

The PolitiFact version of events is beginning to smell fishy.

PolitiFact:

According to a March 3, 2010, analysis of border security by the Congressional Research Service, "Border Patrol agent manpower assigned to the southwest border has been increasing steadily since the early 1990s. In 1992, there were 3,555 agents assigned to the southern border, by 2000 that number had increased by 141 percent to 8,580. Since 2000, the number of agents assigned to the southern border has continued to increase, more than doubling once more to 20,119 agents at the end of FY2009. The rapid and steady increase of Border Patrol agents assigned to the southern border reflects the ongoing interest in Congress in stemming the tide of illegal immigration."

The report notes that Obama's proposed 2011 budget requested a reduction of 181 Border Patrol agents. But the administration's proposed 2012 budget calls for increasing the the number of border patrol agents to 21,370.

Fishy.

Note that PolitiFact offers Obama credit for "increasing the number of border patrol agents to 21,370.  I count that as a misreading of the budget proposal.  Given that the FY 2012 proposal calls for support of 21,370 agents while emphasizing an added 300 agents to help with port security and the like, it is far more likely that Obama's budget simply funded agents added to the border by Congress in the previous fiscal year.  That puts the wording in keeping with the string of budget proposals listed above.

How did we get 20,119 border patrol agents on just the southern border at the end of FY2009 when Bush's budget called for an increase to 20,000 for all such agents and Obama's FY2010 budget called for support for 20,000 border patrol agents?  The quotation from the CRS report offers credit to Congress for the emphasis on increased border security.  Who deserves credit and how much?  Bush?  Obama?  Congress?

PolitiFact:

Jack Martin, special projects director at the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which supports stricter illegal immigration guidelines, said Obama's statistic is true but that much of the credit for starting the trend toward more border security goes to Obama's predecessor.

Martin credited Obama with continuing the trend?  I'd like to see the correspondence.

PolitiFact:

In March 2011, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released a report, "Border Security: DHS Progress and Challenges in Securing the U.S. Southwest and Northern Borders," in conjunction with testimony from GAO Director Richard Stana.

The report confirmed that personnel and other resources to stop illegal crossings of the U.S.-Mexico border have increased dramatically in recent years. In 2004, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was created, reorganizing several federal agencies under a single roof. That year, the agency had 10,500 agents to patrol land borders.  That number now stands at nearly 21,000.

The numbers in the report come directly from Sen. Joe Lieberman (yellow highlights added):

"At the end of fiscal year 2004, the first full year DHS existed as an agency, it had about 10,500 agents assigned to patrol the U.S. land borders and about 17,600 officers inspecting travelers at air, land, and sea ports of entry (POE),1 amounting to a total of about $5.9 billion (for personnel, infrastructure, and technology) that had been appropriated to secure the entire U.S. border. At the end of fiscal year 2010, both the number of personnel and amount of resources dedicated to border security had significantly increased, with almost 20,000 agents assigned to patrol the U.S. land borders and 20,600 officers assigned to air, land, and sea ports of entry, amounting to about $11.9 billion appropriated to secure the entire U.S. border (for personnel, infrastructure, and technology)."

It appears PolitiFact may have counted Lieberman's "20,600 officers assigned to air, land, and sea ports of entry" as the "nearly 21,000" patrolling our land borders.

Here's how a footnote in the report (#13) put it:

Of the 20,558 agents in place in fiscal year 2010, 17,535 agents were dedicated to the southwest border, 2,263 were dedicated to the northern border, 246 agents were dedicated to the southeast coastal border, and 514 agents were dedicated to other locations.

As the 246 agents dedicated to the southeast coastal border should not count as land border agents, the land border figure cannot exceed 20,312.  It's a slight stretch to call 20,312 "nearly 21,000."

What do we make of all this?  Here's what PolitiFact makes of it:

(M)anpower has roughly doubled since 2004, as Obama said in his speech in El Paso. Again, that trend began under President Bush, whom Obama credited, but it continued under Obama. We rate Obama's statement True.

PolitiFact is fudging the numbers and spinning for the president.  The president said the number of agents more than doubled, not "roughly doubled."  But the president was correct that the present number is about 20,000.

President Obama is responsible for how many of those?  Note what the DHS reported in 2010:

The existing permanent Border Patrol facilities were designed to accommodate approximately 9100 agents. In October 2006, there were approximately 12500 agents using these facilities, leaving a “facility gap” of approximately 3400 overcrowded agents. In addition, the 6,000 agent increase in deployment scheduled to be completed in December 2008 has added an additional 6,000 agent “facility gap.” The "facility gap" grew even further with the announced increase of 1700 additional agents to come online by the end of FY 2009. In addition, 40% of existing facilities are over 30 years old, which increases the cost of their maintenance.

Adding 6,000 agents to the 12,500 using the facilities as of 2006 pushes the number of agents to 18,500.  Adding another 1700 by the end of FY2009 (the final Bush budget) brings that number to 20,200.  In short, Obama has done virtually nothing to beef up land border security in terms of the number of agents in this three years, counting his FY2012 budget.

PolitiFact's conclusion that the trend toward increase "continued under Obama" appears to rely chiefly on the 1700 agents added under Bush's FY2009 budget proposal.  The increase for 2012 may stem from a bill sent to the president in August 2010.

Summary:

On the literal claim, Obama seems off by a bit for claiming the increase was more than double.

The underlying point that his administration was substantially responsible for continuing what Bush started seems barely true.  Obama made extremely modest requests for increased border security and made his biggest impact by signing a border security bill sent to him by Congress.  In contrast, President Bush made a commitment to dramatically increasing border security and found Congress cooperative.  Obama's statement leads the reader to credit Obama more than his due.  PolitiFact sees no evil.

Rather than continuing a trend, Obama brought it to a stop for almost two years before Congress took action to continue increasing border security.

I have yet to look into the secondary underlying message, that current security meets Republican demands to set the stage for comprehensive immigration reform.

The grades:

Robert Farley:  F
Martha Hamilton:  F

The "True" rating was a gift.  The literal claim was not true according to the numbers PolitiFact provided, and the underlying points were even more dubious.  Spinning the president's words in the conclusion counts as an embarrassment.

Afters:

Remember that decrease of 181 agents in Obama's FY 2011 budget mentioned in the CRS report?  Check the reference and it goes back to commentary from the Senate.  It was Sen. Susan M. Collins (R-Maine) who uses the 181 figure in that report, claiming that the Obama budget would require a cut of that number for border agents.  The Obama budget itself talks of providing for 20,000 agents, the same as it provided for in 2010--and the same as provided for in Bush's FY2009 budget.


May 24, 2011:  Reversed the order of the two paragraphs preceding the "Grades" section.