Sunday, November 06, 2011

Grading PolitiFact: Mitt Romney and $95 billion in savings

Context matters -- We examine the claim in the full context, the comments made before and after it, the question that prompted it, and the point the person was trying to make.
--Principles of PolitiFact and the Truth-O-Meter

Ordinarily I do not participate in PolitiFact's uber-lame "Lie of the Year" voting, but I'll consider the above as a write-in entry when the time comes.


This issue:

(clipped from PolitiFact.com)


The fact checkers:

Angie Drobnic Holan:  writer, researcher
Bill Adair:  editor


Analysis:

Even though I see stuff like this from PolitiFact pretty much every week I still can't believe my eyes sometimes.

PolitiFact rates "False" Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's claim that repealing ObamaCare would save $95 billion.  So let's see how PolitiFact reasons it out (bold emphasis added):
Mitt Romney has recently been emphasizing one of the favorite themes of the tea party movement: cutting government spending.

He’s been getting pretty specific about some of his ideas, both in an op-ed in USA Today and in speeches on the campaign trail. His plans include ending subsidies for Amtrak, stopping funding the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and eliminating foreign aid to countries "that oppose America’s interests."

He also wants to save money by rolling back President Barack Obama’s signature health care law.

See the change?  PolitiFact avers that Romney's op-ed talks about ways to cut government spending.  That's in the first graph.  By the third graph, the idea has morphed into saving money.  The two can mean the same thing but do not necessarily mean the same thing.

PolitiFact:
He made the point in the USA Today op-ed, suggesting he would  "repeal ObamaCare, which would save $95 billion in 2016."

We were surprised by his suggestion. As we remembered the health care negotiations, Democrats took pains to make sure the 2010 health care law was projected to reduce the deficit, and they bragged repeatedly about their numbers.
PolitiFact's surprise is apparently a product of a liberal bias.

Romney was writing about reducing spending in that section of his op-ed, not about the net effect of repealing the health care reform bill.  It's easy to prove (bold emphasis added):
There are three ways to reduce spending, which combined, will achieve a fiscal turnaround of this size.

First, eliminate every government program that is not absolutely essential. There are many things government does that we may like but that we do not need. The test should be this: "Is this program so critical that it is worth borrowing money to pay for it?" The federal government should stop doing things we don't need or can't afford. For example:
 
•Repeal ObamaCare, which would save $95 billion in 2016.
Taking context into account, Romney's list of bullet points are his suggestions for cutting spending.  It is perfectly legitimate to talk about spending cuts as distinct from overall deficit reduction.  Somehow this is lost on the fact finders at PolitiFact.  Even setting aside the misleading nature of the CBO scoring for the PPACA (the doc fix and CLASS, to name two obvious examples), PolitiFact constructs a straw man version of Romney's argument.

As a result, the subsequent paragraphs lauding the supposed budget savings from the PPACA are irrelevant.  Romney was talking about cutting spending, not cutting the deficit as such.

PolitiFact sums up:
So according to the CBO analysis, a full repeal of the bill would reduce the deficit by $16 billion in 2016, much less than the number Romney cited.
Romney cited a number for a reduction in spending.  PolitiFact grades him on deficit reduction.  Of the two, PolitiFact is the one engaged in partisan spin.

It's disgusting to label this schlock as a fact check.

The judgment from On High:
If Romney had only criticized the law as an expansion of government spending, he would have been on firmer ground. Instead, he asserted that a repeal of the law would save significant money -- $95 billion. In fact, the law included new taxes and cost reductions so that the actual savings for the year he cited would be much smaller -- $16 billion. And, over the long haul, repealing the law actually adds significantly to the deficit. So we rate his statement False.
Romney did criticize the law in terms of its expansion of government spending.  And not spending $95 million saves $95 million in spending.


The grades:

Angie Drobnic Holan:  F
Bill Adair:  F

Together, they are journalists reporting badly.



11 comments:

  1. And still no update on the "revised" numbers post-CLASS fail...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not a problem.

    By eliminating CLASS, which would have been insolvent, ObamaCare will save taxpayers even *more* money. ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Actually, IIRC, PF considered the "savings" the CBO claimed via CLASS when determining that the PPACA was going to save life on earth as we know it.

    Like all things PF, CLASS is gone, but they won't update their ratings to reflect that its "savings" no longer exist.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Back in the old days PF understood there was a difference between spending money and deficit reduction:

    "The CBO also concluded that through 2019, the Senate approach would reduce the federal deficit by $130 billion and slow the rate of federal spending growth due to new taxes and provisions to reduce spending over time.

    Spending cuts have also been proposed to save money..."

    http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2010/jan/20/kay-bailey-hutchison/hutchison-says-health-care-bill-will-raise-costs-t/

    ReplyDelete
  5. WSJ opinion piece (Dec. '09):

    "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the House and Senate health-care bills will reduce federal deficits over the next 10 years by $138 billion and $130 billion, respectively. The lion's share of the savings, $101.6 billion and $72.5 billion, would be realized by the [CLASS] program."

    Has PF updated their figures?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703499404574562240508080098.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Jeff, you seem to be failing to understand PolitiFact's message that the health care reform bill is a good thing. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Doh! My bad. It's just been so long since I've been reminded that it's not a government takeover of healthcare...:)

    ReplyDelete
  8. FWIW, I dashed off an email to the pair responsible for this story. Mostly likely they'll do nothing to correct the story and we'll be left to wonder whether they even intellectually admit to the error. Perhaps they think they have some way of justifying their analysis, but conveniently keep the explanation a mystery. No doubt it's easier to defend it if nobody knows what it is.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm sure the 3 editor super-panel will be summoned to the Bat cave to review your comments shortly;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Bryan gets an "F" for selectively cherry-picking PolitiFact's analysis to prove his partisan point. His "bold emphasis" proves nothing other than distracting his readers from the overall point of PF's analysis.

    "In other words, if you fully repeal the law, you would also be repealing things that reduce the deficit, such as cost reductions and higher taxes."

    Two can play at this game.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yanz said:

    Bryan gets an "F" for selectively cherry-picking PolitiFact's analysis to prove his partisan point. His "bold emphasis" proves nothing other than distracting his readers from the overall point of PF's analysis.

    Where PF's analysis fails to consider the obvious charitable interpretation of Romney's remarks, that analysis is not objectively rendered. On that point it doesn't really matter what PF's point was. The point is my point: that PF did not objectively analyze the fact check.

    Yanz continued:
    "In other words, if you fully repeal the law, you would also be repealing things that reduce the deficit, such as cost reductions and higher taxes."

    Two can play at this game.


    Of course two can play the game. Or more than two can play the game. Romney makes a point about cutting spending (as PF notes). PF rates the claim in terms of deficit reduction instead of in keeping with Romney's point (cutting spending). PF is playing a game. That's the point. Do you agree PF is playing games?

    ReplyDelete

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