Knowing a tiny bit about political science plus a wee bit of history, I
tried my hand last January at evaluating President Obama's prospects based on his early agenda. The president's push for health care reform had not yet occurred, but I can still claim to have done fairly well with relatively broad predictions. I forecast that Obama's two initial priorities, economic stimulus and the closure of the Gitmo detention facility, carried substantial political risk:
Obama moved center with his proposal for economic stimulus. That was a good move. Unfortunately for the president, the Democrats in Congress have been less inclined to move center and the resulting bill (from the House, anyway) is much more partisan in character than the one Obama recommended. If the Senate increases the tax cut percentage reasonably close to his original proposal then a bipartisan bill may yet emerge. Obama gets a boost from that. Alternatively, the budget fight will help polarize conditions in the capital. The resulting bill will represent only the Democrats, and its relative lack of stimulative effect may come back to bite the party of the left.
I love it when circumstances occur that make it look like I know what I'm talking about.
My evaluation of the other issue panned out fairly well, also, if I can claim Eric Holder's decision to try some foreign terrorists in civil courts, along with Obama's other related judicial problems with terrorists, within its bounds:
Obama decided to bite the bullet and commit to closing Gitmo. The move is a sop to his base but a difficult one to pull off to the satisfaction of the electorate generally. In recognition of the difficulty, Obama fashioned his strategy by putting the resolution of the issue on a year-long timetable without any initial details.
As noted above, making this a key early issue carries substantial risk in terms of exercising his political power over time.
With the election of Scott Brown to the Senate, the political game in Washington changes. Where Obama formerly could let liberal Democrats in Congress fashion and pass legislation agreeable to him, he will now be forced to seek a slightly broader coalition while enduring a rebuke of his policy course.
Obama might have averted the current problem if he had taken his own campaign rhetoric more seriously. A more centrist stimulus bill with fewer pet projects stuffed inside would have diminished the GOP position as a clear alternative and, perhaps more importantly, jibed with the campaign rhetoric that so many independent voters found appealing.
Byron York had it right with regard to Brown's win in Massachusetts. Independents and many Democrats do not like the health care reform bill, and neither do they like the way they see business conducted in Washington.
