Happy New Year, with Bucs post-mortem

It's 2007, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are done with the 2006 season--failing to make the playoffs and finishing in the division cellar after winning the division title in 2005.

What happened?
Injuries at key positions happened--positions where the backup couldn't adequately fill the void.

Chris Simms, who was already a bit of question mark since his starting experience was so limited, went down with a ruptured spleen in the third game of the season. Simms' listed backup, Luke McCown, was lost for most of the season with an ACL injury (McCown returned to the roster late in the season but did not play).

Coach Gruden chose rookie Bruce Gradkowski to fill in for Simms, and Gradkowski showed some real flashes of talent ... but that's where other injuries figured in.

The offensive line.

After having a consistent lineup on the offensive line for most of the preseason, the offensive line was juggled from the start as rookie starting right guard Davin Joseph missed several games with a strained knee.
Kenyatta Walker played pretty well early in the season but was lost after just three games to a season-ending knee injury.

That forced the team to start two rookies on the right side of the offensive line, blocking for a rookie quarterback.

This added up to a disastrous season.

Gradkowski struggled throwing the ball accurately downfield, and opposing defenses noticed this.
They stacked up against the run (it worked, by and large), and clamped down on the short passing game.
Gradkowski did not have sufficient field vision to see the open man and get the ball to where it needed to be.

Tim Rattay, who made the roster primarily because of the injury to Luke McCown, showed that he can serve as a capable backup after all. Rattay had the rap for looking terrible on the practice field, but on three NFL weekends he showed that he can take what the defense offers--including the deep ball--and move a West Coast offense. Ending the season, the Bucs put an overtime scare into the Chicago Bears and put a beating on the Cleveland Browns before falling 23-7 to the Seattle Seahawks in a game where the Bucs' offense left 17 points on the field.

I'm not going to sugar-coat the record, since 4-12 is horrible. There's no getting around it.

However, I will advocate hope for Buccaneer fans for next season.

1) The defense isn't as bad as you think it is, especially in the defensive backfield. The pass rush exposed the secondary repeatedly, usually giving quarterbacks all the time they could dream of to find open receivers. The Dallas Cowboys threw at will against the Bucs, allowing them to put quite a Thanksgiving thumping on the pewter pirates. Fix the pass rush and you fix the secondary. Juran Bolden played head and shoulders above what Tim Wansley and Mario Edwards had offered the team a nickel, and he filled in for injured starting cornerback Brian Kelly reasonably well (every defensive back gets burned). The defense finished with the #17 ranking, and that would have been better if the offense hadn't been one of the league leaders in three-and-out. Time of possession has a huge impact on yardage allowed.
The fix: Acquire a solid pass-rushing end and a defensive tackle who can disrupt the pocket 80% as well as Warren Sapp did it in his prime. Do that and the defense is top ten again even with a below-average offense. Ellis Wyms gets a tip of the hat for playing okay once Booger McFarland was traded to the Colts, but he's had injury problems throughout his career and he doesn't do quite enough to start at under tackle. He's a quality backup who has earned some snaps, however.

2) Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. Whoever the starter is, he needs to find what the defense is giving up and get the ball where it needs to go.
Tim Rattay has some of that ability. You'd like to see it out of Chris Simms, because Simms has a monster arm. Unfortunately, Simms seems to have a slower release that allows the defenses a better opportunity to defend his passes. Luke McCown drew raves for his play on the practice field, but we haven't seen much because of his knee injury. He has the type of mobility that Gruden loves, and throws the ball pretty well (allegedly). Gradkowski has some good physical tools and great leadership skills, but he simply lacks the experience in reading defenses and then getting the job done at NFL speed. The Bucs need at least two of those guys to be able to read a defense and get the ball to the right spot for this offense to hum. Keeping a third guy based on potential is okay. That was probably the plan for Gradkowski last year.

3) Kick returns. Kick returns for the Bucs did not generate enough positive yardage. Some of that had to do with shuffled personnel, but even if Mark Jones was healthy all year I don't think he's the answer. Philip Buchanon is a more serious threat returning punts, and Torrie Cox has the best knack for finding seam on kickoff returns (though he turned in a bad audition early in the year). Those are the best options now assuming they don't fumble, but adding a truly fearsome return guy would boost starting field position and inflate the points put on board for sure.

Take care of 1-3 and the Bucs make the playoffs next year.

The Bucs pick high in the draft, have the cap space to add some solid veterans (even a star or two, if available), and a favorable schedule for next year. Gotta beat the division opponents, however (0-6 in 2006--Ouch!).