Pakistan teetering?

Depending on how justified was President Pervez Musharraf's declaration of emergency this past week, Pakistan may be teetering between semi-democratic ally and theocratic enemy.

Pakistan remains home to many Muslims sympathetic to or outright part of the radical Islam that sponsors the vast majority of world terrorism. Fortunately, a greater number of moderate Muslims also call Pakistan home. If the nation is policing its extremist elements effectively then it should trend toward moderation as a democratic and representative government.

The Bush administration is banking on Musharraf's being wrong about the threat to Pakistan's stability. Perhaps Musharraf was counting on the U.S. to support his grasp for greater power through the emergency declaration--if so his gamble failed. Pressure from the U.S. has apparently moved Musharraf to reverse himself.

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan said it would hold a national election by mid-January and President Pervez Musharraf pledged to quit the military after criticism from the United States for imposing emergency rule.

Musharraf has detained hundreds of lawyers and opposition politicians since taking emergency powers on Saturday, a move seen as designed to pre-empt a Supreme Court ruling on his re-election as president last month.

U.S. President George W. Bush, who values Musharraf as an ally in his battle against al Qaeda and the Taliban, urged Pakistan's president to lift the state of emergency, hold elections and quit his military post.

(The News)

I think it was Time magazine that just within the past week or so called Pakistan a greater threat than Iran with its cover story.

The big difference between the two that gives the lie to that claim--at least for now--is that the governments in power have different aims. Iran is ruled by Islamic extremists and Pakistan is not. Only if Pakistan comes under the control of a comparably extreme group does it exceed the threat posed by Iran.

The political dance with Pakistan is a dangerous one, to be sure. The U.S. cannot afford for Musharraf to go the way of the Shah unless the new leadership remains a responsible neighbor.

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Musharraf wins re-election

Pakistan's President Musharraf won re-election as president.

Musharraf partnered with formerly exiled political figure Benazir Bhutto, promised to step down as head of the armed services, engineered an exception enabling him to run for another term and weathered an election day challenge to that exception.

ISLAMABAD: According to unofficial results President Pervez Musharraf has won presidential election with heavy majority.

President Musharraf has won presidential polls with clean sweep, state television reported on Saturday.
(The News)

Amazing how an unpopular president can win such a sweeping victory. In spite of my belief that Musharraf is best for Pakistan right now (compared to any likely alternative), I'll be interested to see what election monitors have to say about this election in retrospect.


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Election time in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The polling is being held today (Saturday) for the presidential election at Parliament House and all four provincial assemblies.

President Pervez Musharraf, People’s Party’s candidate Makhdoom Amin Fahim, lawyer’s candidate Justice (retd) Wajihuddin and Faryal Talpur are in the run for the presidential election
(The News)

Looks like Musharraf ironed out his differences with Benazir Bhutto just in time.

I wonder if the elections will be fair?

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan --With their country in turmoil, Pakistani voters are expected within months to go to the polls for the first parliamentary elections here in five years. But as time runs short, independent observers say that the nation is poorly prepared and that the elections will be highly vulnerable to fraud.

The most glaring weakness, they say, is a new voter list that is missing the names of tens of millions of Pakistanis, threatening to seed mass confusion over who is eligible to cast a ballot.
(Washington Post)

A Musharraf win probably is the best course toward a democratic and neighborly Pakistan, though admittedly I'm rather ignorant of the competition Musharraf faces in the election.

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A marriage of convenience?

No, they're not getting married in the literal sense. But President Pervez Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto seem to have formalized their power-sharing partnership.

This is probably a good development in terms of gradually transforming Pakistan from a mostly benevolent dictatorship into a democratic good neighbor (no doubt India will always have reservations about Pakistan).

clipped from www.thenews.com.pk ISLAMABAD: Breakthrough has been reported Thursday in the talks for national consensus between government and Pakistan Peoples Party. According to Geo News the National Reconciliation Ordinance being given final touches under which former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and all other important political leaders will be granted amnesty and all political cases registered against them will be withdrawn.

Game on in Pakistan

This doesn't look good.

ISLAMABAD: The Constitution Avenue on Saturday presented the scene of a virtual battlefield. The blood of journalists and lawyers soaked the ground who fell victim to the worst-ever brutality of the police in the capital’s history – thanks to the newly-appointed police chief Marvat Ali Shah.

Large contingents of the police, both in uniform and plain clothes, were deployed at the main route of the Constitution Avenue. Besides, personnel of law-enforcement agencies were also deputed at the main Chowk of Fazle Haq Road, Blue Area Islamabad, where the police had erected blockades.
(The News)

President Musharraf gave himself some credibility by letting stand a number of the rulings of Pakistan's high court. Apparently that was not enough to keep the anti-Musharraf factions from hitting the streets. Musharraf has had to play a delicate game to keep his power/maintain stability in Pakistan. We have reason to worry about what will transpire if Musharraf is ousted.

Maybe the new regime will cooperate against terrorism at least as much as Musharraf did--but then again maybe we get a new Taliban.



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Big move in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Supreme Court’s larger bench Tuesday adjourned hearing of constitutional petitions against president’s holding dual offices, till tomorrow (Wednesday).

The president’s counsel in the Supreme Court, Syed Sharifuddin Pirzada filed a written statement in the court today that General Musharraf would doff uniform after his re-election as president for another term.
(The News)

Apparently the deal between Bhutto and Musharraf got finalized. This appears to firm up the Pakistani government considerably. Good news for all concerned except radical Islamists, I trust.



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Problems persist in Pakistani politics

ISLAMABAD: The much-touted power-sharing deal between Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and former Premier Benazir Bhutto has collapsed over her demand that prime ministers must be allowed a third term, a minister considered close to the General has said.

"It is finished. The President said 'no'. If you insist, there are very thin chances of salvaging it - just 1 or 2 per cent," Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad was quoted by 'Dawn' on Saturday as saying.
(Times of India)

Musharraf either needs to work a compromise or tighten his (death?)grip on power. Strong-arming his way to re-election won't make him more popular. The U.S. government isn't likely to be pleased, either.

Pakistan viewed from afar: Musharraf needs Bhutto

President (dictator) Pervez Musharraf remains on the hot seat in Pakistan.

Musharraf is unpopular, and he is having trouble finding issues that reverse the downward trend of his popularity. He gained a bit of Pakistani "street cred" earlier this year by allowing to stand a Supreme Court ruling that went against him. Within the past few weeks, the court kneecapped Musharraf by finding that he doesn't have the power to exile a native Pakistani, such as the leader Musharraf ousted when he seized power to cap a military coup.

This is not the type of thing that bolsters the power of a military dictator.

Musharraf at least appears (who really knows the hearts of men?) to have Pakistan's best interests at heart, but his regime remains at risk of being toppled. To keep that from happening, Musharraf has pursued a political reconciliation with the Pakistan People's Party. Musharraf apparently believes that PPP support will solidify his standing, so he has made overtures to another exiled Pakistan political figure, Benazir Bhutto.

Bhutto has made Musharraf's life miserable by placing some firm conditions on her cooperation--the type of thing that Musharraf won't do willingly--like separate the position of President from the control of the military. Bhutto has insisted that Musharraf give up the uniform as president and while running for re-election. That disagreement has simmered for some time, with recent reports indicating imminent compromise.

ISLAMABAD: Negotiators trying to thrash out a power-sharing deal between Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and self-exiled former premier Benazir Bhutto in fresh talks achieved a breakthrough on Tuesday, the PPP sources said.

At a meeting in Dubai they focused on Musharraf's powers over the Pakistani parliament and on forthcoming presidential and general elections, Pakistan People's Party spokesman Farhatullah Babar said.
(The News)

Complicating matters still further, the in-country PPP leadership says it doesn't support Musharraf regardless of what Bhutto says. And the ousted former president is due back in the country (he says) any day, now.

Whither Pakistan?

Pakistan's political reconciliation continues to inch along bumpy path

A fair percentage of the headlines at The News, the Pakistani news outlet I check for early-breaking events, are a mystery.

Like this one: MMA vows to resist if BB comes from backdoor

There's just no way I know what that means without reading below the headline.

PESHAWAR: MMA president Qazi Hussain Ahmed said that resistance would be made if Benazir Bhutto tries to come into power from backdoor after a deal with General Musharraf.
(The News)

A-ha. I dimly suspected that "BB" might be Benazir Bhutto, the exiled political figure that Musharraf has courted (in the political sense) to assist in unifying Pakistan against extremist factions. Apparently the rest of the MMA doesn't appreciate her just waltzing back into the country and cutting deals without consulting them about it.

He said that Benazir Bhutto’s deal with General Musharraf would mean that she supports the General and he would not accept any deal.

It's almost enough to make me do a parody of an old Rolling Stones tune. "Sympathy for a Military Dictator." I'll have an easier time coming up with the rhymes than Musharraf will have in unifying Pakistan.

Deal reached on Musharraf's uniform?

I admit I'm surprised--so I guess I'll wait to see if it's true.

LONDON: Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has agreed to resign from his position as army chief in a power-sharing deal with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, the exiled former leader said in an interview published Wednesday.

Speaking from London, where she currently lives, Bhutto said in an interview to a UK-based newspaper that while the deal was not yet complete, the "uniform issue is resolved."
(The News)

There has been plenty of posturing on the issue by both sides over the past couple of weeks. This may yet be more of the same.

Something's afoot in Pakistan

With the unrest in North Waziristan, the political reconciliation attempt, the play for power/protection by Benazir Bhutto, and the U.S. splurbles about keeping open the possibility of strikes into Pakistan (made in varying degrees by a State Department official and presidential wannabe Barack Obama).

WASHINGTON: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke at length late Wednesday with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf as the key U.S. anti-terrorism ally weighed imposing a state of emergency due to security concerns in the nuclear-armed nation.

Rice spoke by phone to Musharraf in a call that took place in the early hours of Thursday in Pakistan where officials said an emergency declaration was being considered and that the president would soon meet with his cabinet to discuss the option, a senior State Department official said.
(The News)

This bears watching. Perhaps President Pervez Musharraf feels that he needs to assert firm control right now because of Bhutto's power play (insisting that Musharraf drop his leadership of the armed forces if he remains as president). Or perhaps it's something more serious, which could be anything from polling data that looks horrible for Musharraf to evidence of an impending coup attempt.

Musharraf offers baby-step toward compromise with Bhutto

Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party wants the presidency separated from the military.

Bhutto was drawn back to the political stage by President and head of the military Pervez Musharraf. As I've noted in previous posts, Bhutti doesn't want to be played like a pawn, so she's trying to use what leverage she has to squeeze Musharraf out of the military.

Musharraf today stuck with his insistence that he will stand for re-election in uniform, and offered continued talks on the uniform/military issue after the elections.

“The talks on the uniform issue could be held after the holding of the forthcoming general elections,” he was quoted as saying.
(The News)

Is it much of a compromise? Probably not, from Bhutto's perspective. As dictator, Musharraf can change his mind on a dime, and Bhutto is a Musharraf's mercy in that respect.

The ball is in her court for now.

Pakistan People's Party leader Bhutto unwilling to compromise ... so far

The political dance continues in Pakistan.

President Pervez Musharraf brought Benazir Bhutto out of exile to establish a show of unity against violent radicals in Waziristan.

Bhutto is trying to make the most of the opening by publicly calling for Musharraf to separate his presidency from leadership of the armed forces.

Bhutto wants some assurance that Musharraf won't stuff her in the coal bin once the crisis is under control. Musharraf wants a failsafe hold on power just in case the elections turn in a crazy/dangerous result (or maybe even just in case his power is threatened, period--I'm inclined to grant the benefit of the doubt).

NEW YORK: Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairperson Benazir Bhutto said that her party would not accept President Pervez Musharraf in uniform.

Responding to a question regarding the re-election of President Musharraf from the present assemblies, she is said that it is a controversial matter and she would take recourse to the court if he tries to get re-elected from the present assemblies.
(The News)

I hope that Bhutto will eventually compromise. Perhaps something other than doffing the military duds will appease Bhutto.

Pakistan, next to Iraq and Iran, is the biggest concern when it comes to terrorist activity.

Musharraf says he'll keep the uniform, thanks

President and military dictator Pervez Musharraf gave his response to Benazir Bhutto, who affirmed that she would take part in the government if Musharraf would divest himself of his military duds.

LAHORE: Punjab Chief Minister Ch. Pervaiz Elahi has said that President Musharraf will be re-elected with uniform and Peoples Party will be welcomed if they would support election of the president in uniform.

Talking to newsmen after laying foundation stone of a new block in Muslim League House, Pervaiz Elahi said it is the right of the voters to elect their leaders and whoever elected by them will be accepted.
(The News)

Evidently Musharraf did the calculations and figures that Bhutto overreached with her demand.

If she's interested in keeping Pakistan united against the radical factions she'll either give in to Musharraf or seek a compromise.

Bhutto's position is about as delicate as Musharraf's. Musharraf's dictatorial powers do enable him to dump Bhutto and her party once he has succeeded in putting down the rebellious faction(s). Bhutto's demand was probably her way of saying "How do I know that you'll live up to your word?"

Though I've expressed a certain degree of faith that Musharraf has Pakistan's best interests at heart, Bhutto's question is an excellent one from her point of view.

One of the best evidences she can get is the fact that Musharraf let stand a judicial decision that went flatly against his wishes last month. Did that decision potentially keep sentiment against him from rising? Sure it did. But you can always come up with a way to make actions seem selfishly motivated.

The second-best guarantee for Bhutto is the international community, which will no doubt lean on Musharraf if he waxes dictatorial without an exceptionally good justification.

A bad day for Islamist "miscreants"

MIRANSHAH: Pakistan troops backed by helicopter gunships killed at least 10 miscreants in a five-hour battle in North Waziristan on Tuesday.
(The News)

President Musharraf is keeping the heat on the Talibanesque rebels, but he has run into a complication regarding his attempt to enhance the unity of Pakistan's government.

Musharraf forged an alliance with Pakistan People's Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto in an attempt to solidify his government as it pursues, but Bhutto threw a spanner in the works when she insisted on an early show of good faith by Musharraf: She insisted that he divest himself of his military uniform as long as he acts as president.

Musharraf's position as the head of the military accounts for much of his job security.

US, Pakistan struggle to reach accord regarding N. Waziristan military action

ISLAMABAD: With little or no ground intelligence and complete lack of state-of-the-art surveillance devices, Pakistan finds itself in a difficult situation and is left with no choice but to rely on intelligence provided to it by the United States in North Waziristan and other sensitive areas within its borders.

Also, there is a growing pressure from Washington on Pakistan that it has to contain ‘emboldened Islamic extremists’, which in the worst-case scenario would lead to another attack on the US homeland.
(The News, Mariana Baabar)

Baabar (not Babar) provides an interesting take, and sticks with a writing approach that doesn't wander too far from the U.S. style of "objective" journalism.

The situation does seem best explained by conventional wisdom. Musharraf's government arose as a military dictatorship, and the president has moved toward significant democratic reforms--but the population of Pakistan contains quite a bit of sympathy for Islamic extremism. Indeed, Musharraf's government was about as tight with the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan as anybody.

In short, the grip of the sane on power in Pakistan isn't as firm as could be hoped.

Given the vulnerability of the government, Musharraf is caught between a rock and a hard place. He knows that he's at risk of being ousted by factions within his own country, and he fears that cooperating too deeply with the United States will ramp up the efforts to push him out of power. But I don't think his only concern is being pushed out of power.

I do think that Musharraf has the good of Pakistan in view. He knows that if radical factions gain control of the country it will fall into alignment against the West, and increase the chances that Pakistan will be pulled into a devastating war, or at least into an unpleasant imposition of economic sanctions.

With the long-term conflict with India still simmering, Pakistan call ill afford to cast aside potential friends.

Yet another bombing in Pakistan

KOHAT CANTT: A bomb blast in a mosque of Pathan Lines in Kohat Cantt. killed 11 and wounded several persons Thursday night.
(The News)

I wonder if the conflict in Pakistan is going to end up costing more lives than the civil war in Iraq?

ISLAMABAD: President General Pervez Musharraf said that the extremists and terrorists will be defeated with people’s power and through the cooperation of the people the government will deal with suicide bombers.

He urged the people to be united and stand up against the extremists with a determination to defeat a handful of terrorists who are a threat for the country.
(The News)

Shia Islam is a distinct minority in Pakistan, but it remains to be seen how terrorists will choose their targets. This one may be Sunni vs. Sunni as extremists try to take down the existing government and install something closer to Taliban rule.

Keep an eye on Pakistan. This could be big.

Suicide attack in Hub, Pakistan

The beat goes on.

President Musharraf appears to have stirred a hornet's nest.

HUB: The blast at RCD Highway in Balochistan’s Hub town Thursday claimed 30 lives, while 30 others were wounded in the incident, sources said

Several injured have been admitted at hospitals of Karachi in a critical condition.
(The News)

Here's to the hornets losing.

Extremists staying after Musharraf

Apparently yet another attempt has been made on the life of President Musharraf (military dictator of Pakistan, that is).

RAWALPINDI: The special police team arrested five persons involved in attack on President Musharraf�s plane from Asghar Mall area.

According to sources, the members belonging to an outlawed organization are also included among these people.
(The News)

The United States is supporting a dictator.

Thank your lucky stars, unless you're a radical Islamist cooking up jihad in Northern Pakistan or Eastern Afghanistan.

It sometimes seems to me that the same people who want us to make friendly peace deals with nations like Iran and North Korea are the same ones who excoriate the United States for cooperating with regimes like that of the Shah of Iran or that of Saddam Hussein (when Iraq was a risk of being overrun by Iranian military forces).

Suicide bomber attack in Pakistan

Things are heating up in Pakistan, where President Pervez Musharraf has finally begun some decisive movements against the radical Islamists in that country.

SWAT: At least 12 security men were killed and over 20 wounded in suicide attack over a security forces convoy in Swat on Sunday.
(The News)

President Musharraf is in a tight spot. There is plenty of sympathy for radical Islam in Pakistan, and Musharraf has been regularly targeted for assassination.

Here's to safety and success for the Pakistani military as they begin to try to clean out a gangrenous portion of Pakistan.