The Independent: The level of "murderous violence" in Iraq has not declined

It's still possible to find journalists utterly convinced that things are going horribly in Iraq.

The example in this case comes from the Independent, a UK newspaper that helps exemplify the difference between traditional American journalist and its European counterpart.

Calling it the worst human displacement in Iraq's modern history, a report by the UN migration office suggests that the fierce fighting that has followed the arrival of new US troops is partly responsible.

The spectre of ethnic cleansing now hovers over the once relatively harmonious country. The UN found that 63 per cent of the Iraqis fled their neighbourhoods because of threats to their lives. More than 25 per cent said they fled after being thrown out of their homes at gunpoint.

The statistics were released as President George Bush's policy of staying the course in Iraq was under grave threat yesterday as the scale of the humanitarian disaster became clearer and a key Republican senator said that it was time to bring the troops home.

A dangerous rift has also emerged inside the US military between the high command, which says the strain the war is putting on the military endangers American security, and commanders on the ground who still say it is a winnable war.

(the Independent)

Though author Leonard Doyle emphasized that the surge of U.S. troops is to blame ("partly to blame" minus the mention of any other factors), the report itself seems very reluctant to make that connection. From page 1:

However, displacement is not limited to sectarian violence; many IDPs are fleeing their homes due to lawlessness experienced throughout the country that is creating an environment of fear in which criminals, militia, and insurgents thrive. In addition, humanitarian agencies are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to provide assistance to those most in need.
(Iraqi Displacement 2007 Mid-Year Review)

In Baghdad in particular:

The majority (63%) of those assessed reported that they fled direct threats to life, and over a quarter said that they had been forcibly displaced from their property. When asked why they were targeted, 89% said it was due to their religious/sectarian identity.
(page 2)

In fact, after reviewing the document, it looks as though Doyle is simply lying. There is nothing in the report to suggest that the U.S. troop surge is even partly responsible for the displacement of Iraqis, at least not in the normal sense of "suggests."

Doyle may have meant that something in the numbers suggested to him that U.S. military operations were to blame. As for what that was, Doyle feels no need to tell us. Add to that Doyle's entirely dubious conclusion that displacement is indicative of no decline in "murderous violence."

The report referenced by Doyle indicates that military operations have tended to stabilize some areas, with resulting destabilization in other areas. The latter destabilized areas become the new targets for stabilization, and with the "clear and hold" strategy implemented by Gen. David Petraeus, an expectation that the troop surge will end up addressing the displacement problem seems reasonable. Predictably, none of that ends up in Doyle's story.

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