Thursday, February 28, 2008

A matter of trust?

As the primary process moves closer to giving us our two major-party candidates, some polls have come out that offer support to the supposition that Sen. McCain possesses some key advantages over Sen. Obama.
... McCain has one advantage over Obama that makes up for the fact that he's not as likable: People are likely to have trust in McCain regarding his willingness to find a middle ground between the parties, and they'll trust him on national security.

Trust is always an issue with Democratic candidates during an election and 2008 should prove no different.
(Sublime Bloviations: "McCain the best GOP choice to confront Obama?")
Rasmussen finds the expected numbers on this one.
McCain is trusted more by 55% of voters when it comes to National Security issues. Obama is trusted more by just 30% on this point. Just half (51%) of Democrats express more trust in Obama than McCain on national security. Unaffiliated voters prefer McCain by a two-to-one margin.

McCain’s advantage on other issues is far smaller.

(Rasmussenreports.com)

Notably, McCain carries more trust on the economy. Unless Obama somehow changes that number (not impossible, but I couldn't offer a reasonable strategy for him to accomplish it if I wanted to), the Democratic emphasis on the poor economy may backfire.

Of course it's just one poll. Plenty of things are likely to change as the campaign unfolds. One new wrinkle is Rasmussen finding Obama in the lead in Texas. That should make Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party unless Sen. Clinton pulls some slick maneuvers at the convention (involving Michigan, Florida and superdelegates).


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