Saturday, August 02, 2008

Iraq violence update, August 2008

The numbers are in for July 2008, apart from late revisions. As usual, I've taken the numbers compiled from the good folks at icasualties.org and generated Excel graphs from their numbers.

Two things to note. First, the numbers may change as noted above. That means my graphs may not agree with the numbers posted tomorrow or the day after. Second, to aid in interpretation of the numbers in terms of recent events, the monthly graphs will cover the past year (13 months of data including the data from the same month last year). The graphs are somewhat easier to read that way, though I'll also periodically produce graphs representing longer time frames in order to emphasize changes over those longer periods.



The violent death numbers for civilians and Iraqi security forces follows the trend I have predicted since the Mahdi Army confrontation spike. The number nearly dropped below 400 for July save for a set of attacks by female suicide bombers near the end of the month. It would be interesting to know how the per capita numbers compare with those from Turkey, Syria, Saudia Arabia and Iran.



Mainstream media outlet have been running some stories about the historically low death rate among coalition troops for July. The number reported by icasualties.org differs from DoD numbers by two, and I'm quite certain that the difference occurs because the DoD did not count the recovery of bodies of soldiers who went missing over a year ago as July deaths. Two such were recovered last month.

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