Why is Obama slipping?

The other day I offered a critique of an AP news analysis story disguised as news. The writer, Stephen R. Hurst, offered that McCain's attack ads account for Obama bombing in recent polls.

Of course the polls offered no definitive evidence that was the case. For that, you questions other than which candidate is preferred. One would have to have some idea why people had stopped supporting Obama, so one would need a question aimed at getting that information.

But how many people actually saw/heard the McCain attack ads in the first place? It's easy to sit as a journalist or pundit already familiar with the ads and thus surmise "Uh-huh. The McCain ads caused Obama to tumble!"

I'd allow that the ads might have an effect even on those who did not see or hear them. We often get our political opinions from elites, media and otherwise.

I will suggest a simple theory. The poll slippage is Obama's fault (see this excellent column by Clark S. Judge and hosted by Hugh Hewitt). And McCain piled on the error with his ads. So McCain helped.

An attack ad works when it is plausible, and an idea is plausible if it is something you tend to accept before you encountered the ad. Ever since his campaign shifted into general election mode, Obama has been figuratively punching his Democratic base supporters in the stomach. He abandons public financing of his campaign. He changes his mind on telecom immunity. He won't allow the 16 month withdrawal turntable as a firm promise.

In short, Obama has behaved as a thoroughly political animal. And that behavior undercuts what was his basic appeal early in the campaign. Way back when, Obama was the new kind of politics guy. The good judgment on the Iraq War guy. The battling corrupt features of government guy. Obama's European tour, without any help from McCain, made it ever clearer that the old Obama was an illusion.

So when McCain compares Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton--popularity disproportionate to capability--it hits Obama in his most vulnerable spot. And it was Obama who put that spot on display.