Iraq violence update, September 2008

The numbers for August are complete at icasualties.org--they rarely update significantly after several days have elapsed in the new month. The graphs reflect the past year or so (13 months including August of 2007).



Deaths among Iraqi security forces and civilians dropped more for this month than I expected. I had predicted a continued gradual decline. If this type of decline continues then jumping for joy would be fitting. It wouldn't surprise me to see this number bump up a little next month, though I continue to expect a general downward trend



Deaths among coalition troops were up slightly--less than expected extrapolating from the mid-month numbers for August. The black graph superimposed on the blue portion represents what the Pentagon classifies as "non-hostile" deaths, such as from vehicle accidents. The blue portion showing above the black thus represents the number of hostile deaths and therefore should more accurately reflect the level of violence against coalition troops in terms of trends. Note that the blue portion only widened slightly from last month's record low. Minus non-hostile deaths, only 12 coalition troops lost their lives in August. The difference compared to the previous August is considerable.

The numbers are extremely consistent with the view that the Iraq War is won or nearly won. President Bush is vindicated even if the world's intelligence services are not.