State of the Rays

The Tampa Bay Devil*Rays clinched a playoff spot on Saturday after beating the Minnesota Twins 7-2 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

The Rays have overcome injuries and stiff competition in the AL East to make the Major League Baseball playoffs for the first time.

How does this team stack up with the regular season winding down and the playoffs approaching?

The Rays are a young team, and make some of the mistakes associated with youth. Though the team has played solid defense all year, atleticism leads to some spectacular plays while lack of seasoning leads to occasional fielding gaffes.

And though the Rays have also relied on solid pitching throughout the season with each starter earning over 10 wins, the starters are young. Each of the starters is likely to set a personal record for innings pitched in a season. Some arms may tire.

On the more positive side, the batting order has started to produce late in the season. Last year's surprise power source, first baseman Carlos Pena, has largely returned to last year's form following the All-Star break. A platoon of outfielders has made up for injuries and subpar batting from speedsters Carl Crawford and B. J. Upton. Crawford may not be ready to return to the lineup until after the regular season. His inclusion on the postseason roster is not assured.

What does the future hold?

I don't know. Baseball is tough to predict, though I was successful enough in predicting that the Rays were likely to stay in the playoff hunt all year based on pitching and defense (I made that prediction after the Rays had already demonstrated competitiveness early in the season). Each of the teams in the AL playoffs has had to deal with injuries, though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have perhaps had it the easiest. The Angels finish the regular season with four games at Seattle, so they're a good bet to maintain their inside track for home field advantage.

The Chicago White Sox figure to win the AL Central, though the Twins continue to lurk nearby. Chicago fields a solid team, with pitching a notch below the other three most likely playoff teams but a batting lineup that features oodles of extra base power.

In the AL East, the Rays head into Sunday with a 2.5 game lead on the Boston Red Sox. I like the Rays to win the division, though it figures to be a razor-thin margin. Winning the season series over Boston (and gaining the tiebreaker edge) may end up the deciding factor between the two clubs.

So, if I understand the playoff implications correctly, the Red Sox figure to face the Angels and the Rays should face the White Sox. The Angels deserve the role of slight favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, though they have a bad history facing Boston.

The Rays should have an edge on the White Sox if the young pitchers keep throwing strong innings and the Rays continue to bat and field with a composure belying their inexperience.

I think either the Angels or the Red Sox have the advantage over the Rays, even though the Rays may possess home field advantage over the Sox. Tampa Bay has defied reasonable expectations that the lack of experience will cost games. Could that pattern endure for the entire season? Sure, but it would buck the odds.

All that being said, there's no reason the Rays can't beat any team they face from here on out. The Rays won the season series against each of the three other teams as well as as sweeping a three game series against the team with the best record in the National League, the Chicago Cubs.

This 2008 season has been terrific for Rays fans just for posting a winning record. The length of the playoff road simply determines how sweet the gravy will taste.

And then next year we expect a championship. Not that I'm making a prediction or anything.