The 2008 presidential election: Why McCain might win

Thinks look fairly bleak for the McCain campaign. Poll numbers favor Obama, and a late surge by McCain seems too faint, according to pollsters, to offer much chance of a McCain victory.

What chance does McCain have, realistically?

Assuming that the Democrats will not succeed in massive election fraud, McCain has a legitimate shot of overtaking Obama if poll numbers that show McCain more trusted on the economy late in the race are accurate.

Elections, according to many political scientists, tend to hinge on a combination of the issues most important to the electorate combined with the voters' perception of the candidate with respect to those issues. The economy is probably still the number one issue by a long shot, so the perception that McCain would better handle the economy provides a clear avenue for McCain to win the election.

I'll admit that I find it difficult to imagine how anyone could regard Obama as better on economics given average or better intelligence and a certain degree of political attentiveness. Obama's budget numbers don't add up and his tax policy might as well be a recipe for prolonged recession. He wants conservation of energy while instituting policies that make energy more expensive (the price of electricity will "skyrocket" in response to his carbon credit cap and trade proposal, in Obama's words). Think about the things one does in order to conserve energy. Do any of them stimulate the economy? How many of them tend to soften the economy?

My opinion of Sen. Obama has sunk to its lowest ebb as I have watched him simultaneously promote his energy policy while he promises to revive the economy. It seems to me that he could not possibly believe his own campaign rhetoric. It isn't plausible to reduce energy consumption and grow the economy at the same time, and I sense that Obama is well aware of the fact but refuses to give it to people straight because it would sink his election hopes.

If I'm right, Obama's campaign strategy is an infernal lie. If the rhetoric works, I predict disappointment for many Obama voters along with a concerted effort to blame his failures on the other party.


One last time: Vote McCain.