Grading PolitiFact: Tom McClintock, taxes, recessions and presidents

PolitiFact currently wallows in Palin-obsession, but the fact check of Rep.Tom McClintock (R, Calif.) begs for attention.


The issue:




The fact checkers:

Louis Jacobson: writer, researcher
Bill Adair: editor


Analysis:

The statement from Rep. McClintock, as presented by PolitiFact:

"Three presidents within the last 100 years have responded to recessions by reducing taxes and regulations," McClintock said. "Warren Harding, John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan all produced rapid and dramatic economic recoveries. We’ve had two presidents in those 100 years who reacted to recessions by doing the opposite — Herbert Hoover in the early 1930s, who radically increased taxes and spending and who imposed unprecedented burdens on trade, and the other is Barack Obama."

Writer Louis Jacobson very nearly subcontracts this fact check to his set of sources. Jacobson contacted an unusually high number of them:

We contacted a host of presidential historians and economists to see whether they agreed with McClintock.

It is worth pondering whether many experts were contacted because Jacobson felt he lacked the wherewithal to grade this without assistance. No shame in that, given the complicated subject matter.

Jacobson provides a set of facts from McClintock with which the experts agree. Then he offers a list of expert objections. PolitiFact also provided a response from McClintock, to which I will occasionally refer.

1. McClintock's list of recessions is selective, in a way that favors Republicans.

McClintock had one minute to speak. Of course his list of recessions is selective. And, as McClintock pointed out, using the Republican Hoover and the Democrat Kennedy in his lists hardly indicates a crafty attempt to favor Republicans. This objection, in short, lacks any merit.

2. Recessions stem from a number of causes.

This serves as a second complaint about oversimplication. Again, McClintock had but one minute to speak. This complaint amounts to a nit pick.

3. McClintock distorts Hoover's tax record.

It would be rather difficult to avoid distorting Hoover's tax record, given the subject matter and the time limitations. Doubtless few presidents only raise or only lower taxes. Hoover lowered taxes by one percentage point--a considerable cut at that time near the stock market crash. The tax cut had been planned prior to the crash and was put through not as an economic stimulus per se but as a means of boosting confidence in the economy. The tax cut was put through in Dec. 1929, and Smoot-Hawley followed soon after in June of 1930. In short, the tax cut was a blip on Hoover's record. It is fair to characterize Hoover's response to the recession in terms of increasing taxes and spending.

4. The Reagan recovery may have been dramatic, but it was anything but "rapid."

McClintock:

(T)he provisions of the Reagan Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 did not take effect immediately, but were gradually phased in. The bill was signed into law on August 31, 1981, and enough provisions had taken effect by November of 1982 to bring the recession to an end.

The Reagan tax law lowered tax rates by 25 percent over a period of three years, so McClintock has a point. Explaining this aspect of the Reagan tax cut would have squeezed quite a bit out of McClintock's one minute speech.

This complaint also amounts to a nit pick.

5. Focusing on the presidential role in combating recessions ignores other important factors.

Notice a pattern in these complaints?

Of course other important factors were ignored. It was a set of comments fit into one minute. Congress does not control the Federal Reserve. It must deal in legislative policy, including the policies advocated by the president.

6. The Obama record isn't settled yet.

As McClintock pointed out, that is exactly why he was making his comments in the House. Another superfluous objection.

7. Finally, correlation does not mean causation.

McClintock's response to this was brilliant:

But “PolitiFact Check” does bring us to the fine point of the matter. How many successful recoveries promoted through cutting taxes will it take before we are willing to recognize that it has a positive effect on the economy? And how many tax increases must we endure before we learn that it is the last thing a government should do in a recession?

While correlation does not equate to causation, we detect causation via correlation via inference. McClintock makes that point vividly while eschewing excessive multisyllabism.

The whole list from PolitiFact boils down to one objection: McClintock was short on detail, and his short presentation did not fully represent all the factors involved. But that is the case with practically everything. Tell somebody to open a jar by twisting off the top, and you skimp on the matter of stabilizing the jar itself.

So how does Jacobson tally the result?

(McClintock) did not persuade us that the 12-plus experts we consulted were wrong.

Wrong about what? The objections about lack of detail are true. They just aren't particularly relevant in the context in which McClintock had to speak. Most of the objections can be true and McClintock's statement also true. But Jacobson and company rated McClintock "False."

There we have a hole in Jacobson's story. At this point, we must take it on faith that Jacobson accurately gives us the opinion of experts as to McClintock's veracity. Sorry, but I do not buy it. I want more answers.

• What questions were asked of the experts?
• What version of McClintock's statement did they appraise?
• What was the specific content of their answers?

Bottom line, if Jacobson ended up collecting enough information to produce a reasonable assessment of the basic accuracy of McClintock's statement, he failed to communicate as much. "Trust me" isn't good enough.


The grades:

Louis Jacobson: F
Bill Adair: F

I'd have given an "I" for incomplete, but producing a rating without producing the evidence to back it warrants an "F."



Nov. 22, 2009: Apologies to Louis Jacobson for consistently misspelling his name as "Jacobsen." Corrections have been rendered.