Another drone attack in Pakistan under new commander in chief

PARACHINAR: Ten people have been killed in US drone attack in Kurram Agency.
(The News)

President Obama is fairly gung-ho about killing Taliban types in Afghanistan and especially Pakistan for a commander who was all but ready to cede Iraq to whatever faction wanted it the most.

Look for teeth marks on the tongues and lower lips of your liberal Democrat acquaintances. Those who are paying attention through their Obamuphoria, that is.

I'm only slightly reassured by these reported attacks. Obama is shaping up as a weak president, though admittedly the paint's still wet.

Pakistanis keeping tabs on Obama

Apparently Senator Obama reiterated his position on Pakistan's sovereignty--that is, his willingness to violate Pakistan's sovereignty in pursuit of high-value terrorist targets.

Pakistan is watching.

An Obama presidency will begin with a smoldering political fire to put out just east of Afghanistan.

I've yet to view the debate, but I'll surely pay close attention to the portion that produced this reaction. You take a hard stance with your enemies, Senator Obama. With friends you use carrots until the friend proves intransigent.

How Obama plays in Pakistan

WASHINGTON: White House hopeful Barack Obama on Tuesday promised to shift the “single-minded” US focus on Iraq to a threatening “terrorist sanctuary” in tribal areas in Pakistan, in a broad new blueprint for US foreign policy.
(The News)

He plays a bit like a preemptive unilateralist, from what I can tell. Rather than containing terrorists in Pakistan, Obama would attack with or without the permission of the sovereign (and nuclear) Pakistani government.

The same story goes on to describe Obama's strategies for Iraq and Afghanistan. The neutral language might as well be describing McCain's stated plans.

He promised to concentrate on five main goals: “ending the war in Iraq responsibly; finishing the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban; securing all nuclear weapons and materials from terrorists and rogue states; achieving true energy security; and rebuilding our alliances to meet the challenges of the 21st Century.”

Well--maybe not the last one. It remains to be seen how Obama will rebuild the alliance with Pakistan while flatly stating his intent to ignore their sovereignty.

The News Web site apparently hacked

I get some of my international news from one of Pakistan's dailies, The News International.

The top story this morning was "Benazir ****** by PML"

That was the headline, actually. There was no accompanying story. In the "More updates" section, that same headline was repeated a half dozen times.



A survey of other international news sources revealed no immediate evidence of a figurative truth in the headline.


*****

Pakistan engaging al Qaeda in Waziristan

AL-QA'IDA's involvement in the huge surge of fighting in Pakistan's Islamic fundamentalist heartland was revealed last night as reports indicated that more than 50,000 people had been forced to flee their homes after being caught in crossfire.

Islamabad's top military spokesman, Waheed Arshad, said in the past few days of fighting, more than 50 "foreign militants" had been killed -- code for al-Qa'ida terrorists based in an area where Osama bin Laden is believed to be dug in.
(The News)

Having Pakistan near a tipping point might turn out as a good thing if Musharraf can strike effectively against al Qaeda, and perhaps take out Bin Laden.

The story also mentions the deaths of 47 Pakistani troops since Sunday.

We can expect the Democrats to push for a phased redeployment of Pakistani troops to Okinawa if that keeps up.



*****

Another honor killing in Pakistan

KHAIRPUR: A woman was killed on the charge of Karo-Kari here on Friday, police said.

They said accused Mukhtiar along with his accomplices axed to death his brother's wife, Zainab Shar, in the Islamabad village on the pretext of Karo-Kari.

They said two years ago the deceased woman was declared Kari but later acquitted of the charge by a Jirga. However, her brother-in-law did not accept the Jirga decision and killed her with the help of his accomplices.
(The News)

It just serves as a little reminder that Pakistan potentially hangs in the balance. Not every Muslim who favors strict sharia law will necessarily favor terrorism and suicide bombings, of course. But the culture is different in Pakistan, and if Musharraf falls you don't know what you'll get.

This is as good a point as any to point to Michael J. Totten's story about rebels who helped bring down the Shah of Iran and lived to regret it. Don't miss the part about Totten's Komala Party confusion.



*****

Pakistan continues crackdown on "miscreants"

MIRANSHAH: The security forces backed by artillery and helicopter gunships killed at least 10 miscreants in a fresh operation in a militant stronghold near the Afghan border Tuesday, the military said. Eight others were injured in the operation.

The government forces targeted an area near Miranshah, the main town in tribal North Waziristan, chief military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad said.
(The News)

Pakistan doesn't have a Western-style free press, so far as I'm aware. I get a bit of a kick out of seeing the radicals termed "miscreants" in a news story.

This flare-up in Pakistan is comparable in importance to the Iraq war. Unless you're Barack Obama, in which case Iraq is meaningless and we need to send U.S. troops into Pakistan.

Musharraf says he'll keep the uniform, thanks

President and military dictator Pervez Musharraf gave his response to Benazir Bhutto, who affirmed that she would take part in the government if Musharraf would divest himself of his military duds.

LAHORE: Punjab Chief Minister Ch. Pervaiz Elahi has said that President Musharraf will be re-elected with uniform and Peoples Party will be welcomed if they would support election of the president in uniform.

Talking to newsmen after laying foundation stone of a new block in Muslim League House, Pervaiz Elahi said it is the right of the voters to elect their leaders and whoever elected by them will be accepted.
(The News)

Evidently Musharraf did the calculations and figures that Bhutto overreached with her demand.

If she's interested in keeping Pakistan united against the radical factions she'll either give in to Musharraf or seek a compromise.

Bhutto's position is about as delicate as Musharraf's. Musharraf's dictatorial powers do enable him to dump Bhutto and her party once he has succeeded in putting down the rebellious faction(s). Bhutto's demand was probably her way of saying "How do I know that you'll live up to your word?"

Though I've expressed a certain degree of faith that Musharraf has Pakistan's best interests at heart, Bhutto's question is an excellent one from her point of view.

One of the best evidences she can get is the fact that Musharraf let stand a judicial decision that went flatly against his wishes last month. Did that decision potentially keep sentiment against him from rising? Sure it did. But you can always come up with a way to make actions seem selfishly motivated.

The second-best guarantee for Bhutto is the international community, which will no doubt lean on Musharraf if he waxes dictatorial without an exceptionally good justification.

Should Barack Obama's podiphagia keep him from being president?

This guy can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth. I wonder if he'll go through with this speech?

"I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges," Obama will say, according to speech excerpts provided to ABC News by his campaign, "but let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."
(ABC News)

As I've been pointing out over the past few weeks, Pakistan has a population that has relatively high sympathy for radical Islam. Knock down the Musharraf government and you don't know what will take its place--it's quite possible that Talibanesque figures would end up in control of the nation. And its modern weapons (including nuclear).

All stick no carrots, Senator Obama?

If Pakistan tips, then terrorists hiding along the border between the two countries will be the least of our worries.

I expect Obama to clarify his statement, saying that he meant to fall in line with the current policy of the administration: working with Pakistan diplomatically while not ruling out an incursion into Pakistan's territory in pursuit of a valuable target depending on the circumstance.

That position was reported in the Pakistani press as a "threat." Obama's language is stronger still. Can he get away with antagonizing Pakistan on the campaign trail and then buddying up with them later?

I doubt he'll get the chance. Senator Clinton is waiting to pounce on his every misstep, real or imagined.

A bad day for Islamist "miscreants"

MIRANSHAH: Pakistan troops backed by helicopter gunships killed at least 10 miscreants in a five-hour battle in North Waziristan on Tuesday.
(The News)

President Musharraf is keeping the heat on the Talibanesque rebels, but he has run into a complication regarding his attempt to enhance the unity of Pakistan's government.

Musharraf forged an alliance with Pakistan People's Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto in an attempt to solidify his government as it pursues, but Bhutto threw a spanner in the works when she insisted on an early show of good faith by Musharraf: She insisted that he divest himself of his military uniform as long as he acts as president.

Musharraf's position as the head of the military accounts for much of his job security.

US, Pakistan struggle to reach accord regarding N. Waziristan military action

ISLAMABAD: With little or no ground intelligence and complete lack of state-of-the-art surveillance devices, Pakistan finds itself in a difficult situation and is left with no choice but to rely on intelligence provided to it by the United States in North Waziristan and other sensitive areas within its borders.

Also, there is a growing pressure from Washington on Pakistan that it has to contain ‘emboldened Islamic extremists’, which in the worst-case scenario would lead to another attack on the US homeland.
(The News, Mariana Baabar)

Baabar (not Babar) provides an interesting take, and sticks with a writing approach that doesn't wander too far from the U.S. style of "objective" journalism.

The situation does seem best explained by conventional wisdom. Musharraf's government arose as a military dictatorship, and the president has moved toward significant democratic reforms--but the population of Pakistan contains quite a bit of sympathy for Islamic extremism. Indeed, Musharraf's government was about as tight with the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan as anybody.

In short, the grip of the sane on power in Pakistan isn't as firm as could be hoped.

Given the vulnerability of the government, Musharraf is caught between a rock and a hard place. He knows that he's at risk of being ousted by factions within his own country, and he fears that cooperating too deeply with the United States will ramp up the efforts to push him out of power. But I don't think his only concern is being pushed out of power.

I do think that Musharraf has the good of Pakistan in view. He knows that if radical factions gain control of the country it will fall into alignment against the West, and increase the chances that Pakistan will be pulled into a devastating war, or at least into an unpleasant imposition of economic sanctions.

With the long-term conflict with India still simmering, Pakistan call ill afford to cast aside potential friends.

A little background on Abdullah Mehsud

In the post linking to the story on the grenade suicide of Abdullah Mehsud, I wondered about his past, and what accounted for his role in terrorist operations in Pakistan. Pakistan's The News published a bio story.

He surrendered along with several thousand Taliban fighters to the forces of Uzbek warlord, Abdul Rashid Dostum, in December 2001 in the northern Kunduz province following the US invasion of Afghanistan. Despite his promise to the Taliban commanders not to deliver them to the US, Dostum handed several of them to the American military authorities. Abdullah Mahsud too was turned over to the Americans, who subsequently transferred him to the specially-built US prison at the Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

He was released in March 2004 after spending 25 months at Guantanamo Bay. Until then, he wasn[']t well-known even in his native South Waziristan. But the stint in an American jail and his artificial leg soon made him a household name in the area. His long hair and daredevil nature made him a colourful and interesting character. Stories were told as to how Abdullah Mahsud rides a camel or horse to visit his fighters in his mountainous abode. He started making speeches in mosques and madrassas preaching Jihad and exhorting the young people to fight against the US and its allies.
(The News)

I don't know the source of author Rahimullah Yusufzai's statement that Mehsud served with Taliban forces, or the account of his capture. If true, it suggests that Mehsud was properly designated as an unlawful enemy combatant if he wasn't fighting in a Taliban uniform. His release from Gitmo after 25 months played a part leading to the kidnapping of two Chinese engineers and the five deaths that occurred during a subsequent rescue attempt.

"Miscreants" keep up terror strikes in Pakistan

Pakistan's conflict with radical Islamist factions keeps heating up.

How long before the US Congress calls for Pakistan to withdraw its troops?

clipped from www.thenews.com.pk BANU: Bannu City came under rocket attacks by unidentified miscreants; the total casualties so far are being said to be 50.

Gitmo grad gets his via grenade

How many innocents died because we released this guy?

Hopefully it was one of those deals where we transferred custody to his home country--so it's their fault. But I wouldn't bank on it.

On the other hand, certain liberals might argue that he would never have served the Taliban if we hadn't imprisoned him first ...

clipped from www.abcnews.go.com Abdullah Mehsud, a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner, talks to the media as his bodyguard stand guard near Chagmalai in South Waziristan along the Afghan border in this Oct 14, 2004 file photo. Mehsud, who led pro-Taliban militants in Pakistan after his release, died on Tuesday, July 24, 2007 when he blew himself up with a grenade to avoid arrest. Armed intelligence agents cornered Mehsud and three other men at the house of a leader of an Islamist political party in the southwestern town of Zhob, police officials said. (M. Sajjad/AP Photo) Jul 24, 2007

Why not go after Osama bin Laden?

I've seen it suggested here and there that the U.S. would be better off pulling out of Iraq and going after Osama bin Laden. Trouble is, bin Laden is probably spending most of his time in Pakistan.

Pakistan isn't really wild about allowing the U.S. military to operate within its borders.

PAKISTAN said it could not accept "indiscriminate action" on its territory by US forces without first being informed that there was an al-Qaeda or terrorist target there.

“We remain determined not to allow al-Qaeda or any other terrorist entity to establish a safe haven on our territory,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said.

“Whatever counter-terrorism action is to be taken inside Pakistan, it will be taken by our own security forces.”

(the Australian)

Any other great ideas?

Yet another bombing in Pakistan

KOHAT CANTT: A bomb blast in a mosque of Pathan Lines in Kohat Cantt. killed 11 and wounded several persons Thursday night.
(The News)

I wonder if the conflict in Pakistan is going to end up costing more lives than the civil war in Iraq?

ISLAMABAD: President General Pervez Musharraf said that the extremists and terrorists will be defeated with people’s power and through the cooperation of the people the government will deal with suicide bombers.

He urged the people to be united and stand up against the extremists with a determination to defeat a handful of terrorists who are a threat for the country.
(The News)

Shia Islam is a distinct minority in Pakistan, but it remains to be seen how terrorists will choose their targets. This one may be Sunni vs. Sunni as extremists try to take down the existing government and install something closer to Taliban rule.

Keep an eye on Pakistan. This could be big.

Suicide attack in Hub, Pakistan

The beat goes on.

President Musharraf appears to have stirred a hornet's nest.

HUB: The blast at RCD Highway in Balochistan’s Hub town Thursday claimed 30 lives, while 30 others were wounded in the incident, sources said

Several injured have been admitted at hospitals of Karachi in a critical condition.
(The News)

Here's to the hornets losing.

No respite in Pakistan

Suicide bombers have kept up their activity in northern Pakistan, unfortunately.

HANGU: The death toll of Hangu suicide attack is said to have risen to seven including six police officials and one passer-by.

It was reported that a car was seen near the gate of Police Training College, Hangu; at that moment, the routine police parade was underway. The white car driver thought to be waiting for the parade to be over, but could not stay back for long and struck his car to gate of the college.
(The News)

Bush's fault?

It would take some imagination to make the case.

Convoy ambush in Waziristan leaves 17 dead

I wonder if the mainstream media will report Pakistan the way they're reporting Iraq?

We've got another slightly unusual handling of the news from The News International in Pakistan. The guerrillas are being labeled with the term "miscreants." Check it out.

MIRAN SHAH: Seventeen security men were martyred and 13 injured when miscreants attacked a convoy of security forces in Madakhel area of North Waziristan tribal region on Wednesday.

Armed men exploded a remote-controlled bomb and opened firing with automatic weapons on a security forces convoy in Madakhel area, killing 17 and wounding 13 security men.
(The News)

Now Pakistan is probably in for it. The tribal conflicts go back for hundreds of years in that region. Pakistan can't win this war. CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC may be expected to start keeping tabs on the number of dead from the Pakistani military.

Only kidding. American media is too egocentric for that. We didn't even keep track of the British dead, from what I remember (I suppose the BBC took care of that body count). Proximity is news, after all.

I'm serious about the guerrilla warfare thing, however. If insurgency cannot be defeated, then it's just a matter of time before al Qaeda or some other competing irregular military force dominates the world at the expense of nation-states.

The impossibility of defeating an insurgency appears to figure prominently in the anti-war position, but it's a myth. England completely subjugated Scotland despite fierce and enduring resistance. The United States put down a popular insurgency in the Philippine islands as an offshoot of the Spanish-American war--and the islands were better for it despite the brutality of the conflict. Portugal had nearly cleared Angola of a three-pronged insurgency (supported by Angola's neighbors), when the fascist Portuguese government was toppled via a military coup. Portugal made a weak attempt at reconciling the factions, then bailed. A civil war lasting over 25 years ensued, with a staggering loss of life.

Terror continues in Pakistan with another suicide blast

ISLAMABAD: The deaths of 16 people in a suicide attack near lawyers convention site at Islamabad Kutchehry have been confirmed on Wednesday. Over 50 people are injured.

After the suicide attack, 67 people were brought to Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, among them 13 were confirmed to have died.
(The News)

The News printed a number of the names of the victims, many of whom were apparently prominent lawyers (I'm guessing, based on the fact that the bombing took place at a convention for lawyers) or politicians.

As terrible as this is for the victims, it will continue to polarize moderate Muslims against their extremist counterparts. If that results in the marginalization of extremist Islam, then that's a good thing.