49ers Edge Bucs 21-19

Put simply, the 49ers picked up an upset win.

Other than giving Tampa Bay's offensive line fits with their 3-4 defense (not to minimize it!--Big factor, and speaks well of the team), the Niners didn't have much of anything except luck.

The Bucs were able to move the ball on the 49ers very well despite difficulty running the ball (see offensive line), but made enough mistakes to preserve the San Francisco win.

Tackles were a telling stat. Sometimes the number of tackles in a game tells you that a player had a whale of a game. Niners LB Patrick Willis had 20 tackles--a great game. But the 49ers had tons of tackles because the Bucs were moving the ball better than the 49ers were moving the ball. The Bucs had 58 tackles as a team--including special teams and tackles by offensive players after turnovers. Just the top seven tacklers for San Francisco had more than that. The number of tackles largely tells you how many offensive plays the other team is running unless you let them score often (no tackle on a TD!).

And as sloppy as the Bucs played (8 penalties for 56 yards--SF had the same number for more yards), they still had a chance to tie the game if Michael Clayton gets both feet in on a two-point conversion. And make no mistake, the failure to get his feet in was all on Clayton.

Defense:
The defense played well overall. Frank Gore got his yards, but San Francisco's running game couldn't regularly pick up first downs. The main problem for the defense was allowing touchdowns. San Fran's inexperienced quarterback, Shaun Hill, got away with threading two hard-thrown touchdown passes that should have been touched (perhaps intercepted) on the way to the receiver. It's the type of play where you have to credit San Francisco, but also the type of play where you fault the defense for letting them get away with a risky throw. If you do it regularly you're a Brett Favre, on the other hand, so keeping an eye on Hill may not be a bad idea. Might not be a fluke.

The D gave up under 250 yards on the day, but three touchdowns was too much even with gift-wrapped field position.

Offense:
I'd like to pour credit on the offense for piling up over 400 yards, but where was the scoring? Jerramy Stevens had a nice day with two TD grabs while everybody else struggled. Alex Smith had passes go off his hands. Michael Clayton is producing some, but he's still plagued with inconsistency. Joey Galloway left the game early after a punk pile-on by beaten CB Nate Clement. Gallaway was brought down by two other defenders on a pass completion and Clement ran up onto the play late and piled on Gallaway, grinding his shoulder into the turf). Maurice Stovall's broken arm (out for the season) may also have been the result of chippy play. It struck me that way at first blush, and I haven't seen a replay.

Though the penalty cost the Bucs, Gaines Adams evened the score by planting his helmet in Shaun Hill's ribs late in the game. I don't condone the payback (and I think it was more carelessless by Adams than an attempt to get back at the Niners), but there was something karmic about it. Oops, I'm talking about the defense.

Anyway, the offense was too sloppy to heap with praise. Points were left on the field, and the team won't get a playoff win playing like this. How much concern? Well, the Bucs started quite a few subs, so you'd expect to see second-half sloppiness. Quarterback Luke McCown, FB Byron Storer, WR Michael Spurlock all logged significant playing time. Storer played the whole game for Pro Bowl alternate B. J. Askew.

Silver lining: If you can't run the ball but you can still pick up first downs pretty regularly with the pass ... not that big a deal.

Special Teams:
Coach Rich Bisaccia has worked with a revolving-door lineup all year, so it's tempting to cut him a break. The special teams have been pretty good--sometimes outstanding--but the last few games there has been at least one ST play that has picked up the other team. Last Sunday it was the second-half opening kickoff--a successful onsides kick that put momentum on the side of the 49ers.

Next up:
Rivalry game. The Carolina Panthers in Tampa. Hate, hate, hate. The Bucs will play hard, but if they rest the starters and don't play better than they did in San Fran then this game is no lock. Still, the Bucs should win. Home adrenaline should help.

Playoffs:
A home game with the New York Giants is pretty much etched in stone, barring natural disaster or a suprise strike by the players union.

The Giants have an excellent front seven and a suspect defensive backfield. I think if I'm Tom Coughlin I run Brandon Jacobs every play until I'm 17 points behind. Though I suppose if I'm Tom Coughlin I'd just end up doing what Tom Coughlin will do regardless of what that is.

If the Bucs stop the run they should win the game with even or better in the turnover battle. The Bucs figure to be able to throw on the Giants better than the Giants can throw on the Bucs.

*****