Iraqi fatalities (civilian and security forces combined) rose slightly in September compared to August. But the numbers continued down from the July total, fulfilling at least for now my expectation that fatalities would continue to gradually drop.
The challenge at present comes primarily from Shia extremists supported by Iran. AQI struggles to maintain its very tenuous foothold in Mosul.
The transition of Sunni Awakening forces from American employ to supervision under the Iraqi national government remains key. Some reports have surfaced suggesting that poor treatment of the Sunnis could still result in sectarian violence sufficient for the "civil war" term to again be brought into play. The Maliki government took the good and important step of promising to pay Sunni Awakening security forces and fold most of them into the nationalized security forces. The government probably won't trust some of the Sunnis as part of its security forces--and that is understandable, expected and wise. But the government must be very careful about whom it accepts. Drawing a hard line in the wrong spot will cause resentment.
Coalition fatalities were up, but not in a way that particularly helps the position of those invested in defeat. Note that the black area of the graph representing "non-hostile" deaths accounts for over half the total. Even supposing that the Pentagon miscategorized a helicopter crash (that killed seven), the total would have been 15. The reported total of eight represents a continuation of the amazing success of the surge COIN strategy.
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