Even knowing virtually nothing about Smith I'll concede that his knowledge of the competition probably exceeds mine handily--but regardless of that I see his odds for General Tactical somewhat inflated, as well as the odds he pictures for the Force Protection/DRS Systems partnership.
Navistar and BAE Systems have come to dominate the MRAP ordering as the competition evolved over time, and some of the lessons learned translate directly to JLTV development. I'm not bold enough to go through assigning odds to the competition, but I don't think any company (make that "partnership") has a better shot at this point of the game than this one.
Smith's piece ends with a forecast of a good chance for stronger Force Protection stock as the JLTV competition unfolds. If the field weren't narrowing down to just two I might agree.