Winning in Iraq

Barring some unusually extensive adjustments to the numbers in the ensuing days, the death rate from violence in Iraq has reached historic lows in the period since the Coalition invasion effort.



The data are current as of today from Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (icasualties.org). The top line of the graph (red) represents civilian and Iraqi security force deaths combined. The lower line of the graph (blue) shows the deaths among coalition forces.

The peak for coalition deaths during this time period was 131 in May of 2007.

In blunt terms, this means victory in Iraq, Not just deposing Hussein and ensuring that Iraq would not provide WMDs or WMD assistance to terrorists, but the establishment of a U.S.-friendly regime--and representative government on top of that.

Four things to note if that type of victory ensues:

1) President Bush gets a great deal of credit for persistence despite failing to implement COIN tactics earlier than he did.
2) Bush helped prove that the a representative government can win an unpopular and protracted war. The supposed inability of democracies to meet this sort of challenge had served to give our enemies confidence in their eventual victory.
3) Our armed forced from the support services on up to the leadership deserves huge credit for resolve and adaptability.
4) Al Qaeda has received a severe blow to its credibility worldwide, largely as a result of the desperate tactics it employed in Iraq while trying to discourage the war effort (that is, killing and terrorizing civilians to perpetuate unrest.

Even today, the typical news of violence from Iraq consists of things like suicide attacks on markets and other targets of zero military importance. Coalition and Iraqi security forces won credibility from Iraqis by default as well as through spectacular effort.

A secure Iraq will be able to consolidate and exploit its oil resources with assistance from foreign investment. Its people will benefit as a result.

And won't the Iranians be jealous?