So far, I've been impressed with his analysis (I suppose I ought to be, since he's one of those talking-head experts that news programs bring on to provide expert opinion).
Check out his take on Lebanon's proposal to move 15,000 troops into southern Lebanon after Israel withdraws.
Why now the push to deploy the army in the south? The government, along with Hizbollah and Syrian and Iranian sponsors, do not want the deployment of a well-armed international force (as opposed to ineffective United Nations observers) into the region. Such a deployment will likely lead to the one thing Hizbollah, Syria, and Iran do not want - the disarming of Hizbollah's militia. By deploying the Lebanese army to the region, Hizbollah will be able to survive intact. There is no confidence among anyone that the Lebanese army will even try to disarm Hizbollah.
(Middle East Perspectives)