Kos-types may well be convinced that bin Laden is greatly enjoying U.S. involvement in Iraq since it supposedly helps so much with recruiting (certainly plum job openings keep occurring as head of AQI). Some apparently sincerely believe that the AQ leader has been playing rope-a-dope with the U.S., absorbing our best shots while his organization increases in strength.
Given that the organization hasn't made an effective strike on the continental United States in over five years, now, that seems like a bit of a stretch. Moreover, it is difficult to see what advantage AQ would obtain if Iraq turned into a democratic constitutional republic allied in waging war against the terrorism of Islamic extremists. About the only one I can think of is the hope that Iraq would be kept from being dominated ideologically by the (in Osama's view) heretic Shia. But if he were that concerned about the Shia then he'd be doing more to liberate Iran, I think (and perhaps we wouldn't see Iranian weapons in Afghanistan aiding the Sunni Taliban).
The simplest explanation for bin Laden's message is his understanding of the media role in democracy. His speech makes plain that he paid attention to the role of public opinion in determining the outcome of the Vietnam War. Bin Laden seems to be trying to add the little push that will tip the U.S. finally against the war effort in Iraq. As numerous commentators have noted, he uses the the rhetoric of the American left in making his case, going so far as to praise Noam Chomsky (the great linguist/political loon).
Bin Laden' s overall message is contained in the last few paragraphs, and this passage sums it up:
There is a message for you in the Mujahedeen: the entire world is in pursuit of them, yet their hearts, by the grace of Allah, are satisfied and tranquil. The true religion also puts peoples' lives in order with its laws; protects their needs and interests; refines their morals; protects them from evils; and guarantees for them entrance into Paradise in the hereafter through their obedience to Allah and sincere worship of Him Alone.Suicide bombers will be ready to pray with those who go forward to the altar in response to this appeal.
(Ottawa Citizen)
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