Iraq violence update, July 2008

The graphs are mine, the data come from icasualties.org.



In the future I'll save the daily average graph for a mid-month update. It is the only graph from the above set that carries at least some of its relevance for a mid-month report. It's too much like the blue graph to reproduce after the end of the month. I have also decided to limit the two monthly graphs to a two year span. That should keep the graphs easy to read and interpret.

What does it all mean?

The numbers from this month remain relatively stable compared to last month. Deaths among coalition troops rose slightly (31 for June compared to a 21 in May). Civilian and security forces deaths reached their all-time low according to the icasualties data, which is kept from January 2006 through the present. Iraq Body Count publishes data with a longer history.

clipped from www.iraqbodycount.org

Deaths per day from suicide attacks and vehicle bombs (now includes non-vehicle suicide attacks)

Deaths per day from gunfire / executions

The IBC data show that we still have a distance to go in order to quash the violence against civilians. The graphs look pretty good for the time span covered by icasualties.org, reflecting clear progress, but the numbers remain sobering overall. Expect the numbers to continue to shrink gradually. If Al Qaeda Iraq is responsible for the bulk of civilian casualties then eradicating AQI should constitute a big step toward making Iraq a peaceful society. Unfortunately, Iran may be deliberately stirring things up and causing deaths among civilians and security forces.

The news from Iraq, despite the rise in American deaths, remains overall good. Operations against AQI and radical Shiites continue, and the Iraqi security forces continue to take the lead in an increasing number of operations. Hope has taken root in Iraq among our allies.