Mid-month Iraq casualty update

The numbers so far from Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (icasualties.org) continue to support the success of the surge strategy.

My mid-month update will include only one graph since most of the raw numbers make for useless graphs. For example, graphing the total number of documented Iraqi security and civilian deaths based on a fifteen day total does little other than provide a misleading graphic picture.

The one graph I intend to use for mid-month updates is the average number of coalition troops killed per day. That number remains significant and is less misleading than a running total, especially if the graph carries an explanation.


The downward trend at the end of the graph is obvious. The caveat is that the latter half of July might feature 50 U.S. troops killed and inflate the average back to an average comparable to that in September of 2007. On the other hand, the average cannot sink significantly below .2 deaths per day without finding that some of the deaths already counted did not take place.

The trend suggests that July will stand as the safest month yet for U.S. troops, at least in terms of service deaths. And if we hunt inside the numbers a bit the picture is actually somewhat better. Of the six deaths counted in the first half of July 2008, two were the recovered bodies of soldiers abducted over a year ago. The tragedy of those deaths does not shrink as a result of it being old news, but it is worth noting that the deaths did not occur as a result of recent violence. A third U.S. death is listed as not occurring because of hostile fire, so again violent acts of insurgents or militias probably cannot be blamed.

Icasualties.org also has a graphic (top left) indicating the average number of deaths during various phases of the war. It occurred to me that the graphic potentially provides a skewed view of the results of the surge. Icasualties counts six phases of the war, with the most recent the "surge or troop escalation" starting of Feb 1, 2007 and continuing through the present. At present, the average deaths per day for the surge phase stand at 2.06. That counts as the second-lowest total for any of the six phases, but the graph I've posted prompts an additional observation. The average deaths figure for every month following Gen. Petraeus' September report to Congress has fallen below the average for the least violent listed stage of the war (1.9).

The icasulties.org figures for civilian and security forces deaths likewise reflect a shrinking trend. Doubling the current numbers (138 as of today) to estimate the total for the end of the month agrees with the picture of a more peaceful Iraq.